A new report by an international development agency, Oxfam has revealed that Nigeria may lose between N2.2 trillion ($100 billion) and N10.1 trillion ($460 billion) of it’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) by 2020 to climate change impacts. It said that the agricultural sector would be severely affected.
The report further noted that climate change in the absence of adaptation could result in shortfall of between two and 11 per cent of the nation’s GDP by this period.
The estimates, the report said, could rise between six per cent and 30 per cent by the year 2050.
Already, the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for Climate Change in Nigeria (NASPA-CCN) has indicated that climate change was having significant impacts in Nigeria, adding that these impacts are expected to increase in the future.
Oxfam’s report stated that the large projected cost, was the result of a wide range of climate change impacts affecting all sectors in Nigeria with agriculture being the most vulnerable.
“Climate change threatens to erode progress to reduce extreme poverty as it undermines vulnerable agricultural systems. Nowhere will that be felt more than in the semi-arid areas of Africa where changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are already reducing the productivity of vital cereal crops,” it said.
The Country Director of Oxfam in Nigeria, Jan Rogge, noted that at the Paris climate negotiations coming up in December, “we need a commitment to achieve a minimum of 50 per cent of public funds being allocated to adaptation in the $100billion goal by 2020.”
He added that a funding target for adaptation in the new climate agreement that prioritises the needs of the most vulnerable women and men across Africa is required. According to him,“adaptation is both technology and knowledge- intensive.
Agricultural investments have suffered from underinvestment in this vital area, with technical and input solutions frequently prioritised over increasing knowledge and skills.
“Rich countries have agreed to help countries in Africa adapt to climate change, but the reality is that Africa is not receiving what it needs to cope.
The latest estimates on the developed countries’ Copenhagen commitment to mobilise $100billion a year by 2020 shows that despite overall rises in climate finance, mitigation projects are receiving more than three-quarters of these funds (77 per cent), with only 16 per cent going to adaptation[i], leaving a growing adaptation gap .”
Oxfam estimated that sub-Saharan African countries were already spending around $5billion of their own resources on adaptation, but this is not enough to fill a widening gap.
It said: “ Ethiopia has estimated its annual needs for climate change adaptation at $7.5billion and yet has been only able to allocate $440million for adaptation programmes.
Ghana, one of Africa’s smallest countries, estimates it needs $1.3billion annually but Oxfam’s report shows they have spent just 210 million or two per cent of their national budget.